The Corn Report 12/29/19

The Weekly Corn Report

@cryptochungus

I have decided to switch to Medium as a means to journal my thoughts on Bitcoin, hopefully I get the hang of this format quickly. I haven’t posted my analysis since 12/15, and since then we’ve had a couple of exciting weeks. For one, we saw that possible SFP into liquidity play out, launching us quickly back into the $7,000’s. I thought we would see a test of the range high around $7,800 but price was battered after testing $7,650. We’ve since seen similar PA that reminds me of the period from December 1st to the 7th, mostly choppy and a pain to try and trade. I remain thankful for the spouts of volatility, because we haven’t seen any overwhelmingly boring consolidation in some time. Let’s start with the weekly.

HTF Analysis

Weekly

The weekly has me on the fence when deciding what direction is most likely at this point. December 21st weekly closed as a bullish shooting star after taking out the lows set just three weeks prior, very bullish. Last weeks candle showed little to no sign of continuation, making me question the strength of that shooting star. I have grown more aware of the bearish argument as the 50ema has begun to creep down towards price, applying pressure to the bulls trying to hold our current levels. As of now, I am cautiously bearish, but I wouldn’t rule out a push towards $8,000. I expect scenario 1 or 2 to play out over the next couple weeks.

Daily

The daily has a feel to it that could offer us one last push up before a serious correction. Price is currently hugging the 21ema. Not much clarity as to where it wants to go next, based on lower time frames I would say we are headed back down towards 7K. The more I look at current PA, the more I think we’ll have a pretty slow week ahead of us. I lean bearish because of the way we’ve been pushed back on the last three pushes into the mid $7,000’s. If we continue to drop I would watch for last week’s low to be hunted, currently at $7,050 on Coinbase.

LTF Analysis

4 Hour

I currently find the 4 hour chart the most interesting. I think it prints a clear break in the bullish structure we had. December 18 until the 23rd showed a strong two-legged push by Bitcoin, carrying us from $6,400 all the way up to $7,650. From that point we saw a strong rejection that sent us back underneath the 21ema. I have labelled the previous week’s price action on the chart below. The middle of the week handed us a fat dish of chop with a side of some unbearable wicks. Remember the stop-hunt conversation in my last report?

Going forward I think we see some relief in the near-term, followed by continuation to hunt that low set last Thursday at $7,050. I believe yesterday’s rejection from $7,500 has shown bears are currently in control. For this to be invalidated, bulls will have to reclaim the $7,330 area. I deem this unlikely as we’ve lost the 21ema with some force and now find ourselves under resistance that was very difficult to get through on the 28th. Below I’ve noted what I think is most likely to play out in the coming days.

Closing

After reviewing all time frames, I see a bearish week ahead of us. I have marked the areas that will invalidate that bias, but until they are met I expect $7,050 to be swept, and possibly lower depending on how price reacts around that area, ie Swing Failure Pattern. I hope it’ll be a fun week of trading as the levels to watch are pretty clearly printed on the 4-hour. Happy New Year, and see you all Sunday(hopefully).

• Chungus